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Psychological Analysis of Fear-Based Healthcare Messaging: Comparing HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 Through the Lens of Spiral Dynamics

Dr. Tomás Campbell [1], a member of the BPS Division of Clinical Psychology Faculty for HIV and Sexual Health, article "Towards more inclusive and Empowering Healthcare Campaigns" [2] presents a compelling analysis of the evolution of HIV/AIDS messaging over four decades, tracing a path from fear-based approaches to more empowering, inclusive strategies. This progression reflects significant advances in both medical understanding and psychological approaches to public health communication. 

The SDTEST® survey data on fears provides an excellent opportunity to examine how these evolving messaging strategies align with contemporary fear psychology and value systems as described by Spiral Dynamics theory.


Comparative Analysis of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 Fear Prevalence


The SDTEST® survey "Fears" involving 3,679 participants across 105 countries reveals that HIV/AIDS now ranks relatively low at 4%, while COVID-19 ranks even lower at just 2%. Below is a abridged version of the survey results. The full results are available for free in the FAQ section after login or registration.


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Recalculer
La valeur critique du coefficient de corrélation
Distribution normale, par William Sealy Gosset (étudiant) r = 0.0322
Distribution normale, par William Sealy Gosset (étudiant) r = 0.0322
Distribution non normale, par Spearman r = 0.0013
DistributionNon
normal
Non
normal
Non
normal
NormalNormalNormalNormalNormal
Toutes les questions
Toutes les questions
Ma plus grande peur est
Ma plus grande peur est
Answer 1-
Positif faible
0.0482
Positif faible
0.0333
Négatif faible
-0.0178
Positif faible
0.0944
Positif faible
0.0354
Négatif faible
-0.0171
Négatif faible
-0.1538
Answer 2-
Positif faible
0.0174
Positif faible
0.0011
Négatif faible
-0.0402
Positif faible
0.0648
Positif faible
0.0458
Positif faible
0.0125
Négatif faible
-0.0960
Answer 3-
Négatif faible
-0.0041
Négatif faible
-0.0091
Négatif faible
-0.0457
Négatif faible
-0.0452
Positif faible
0.0480
Positif faible
0.0760
Négatif faible
-0.0179
Answer 4-
Positif faible
0.0395
Positif faible
0.0308
Négatif faible
-0.0225
Positif faible
0.0193
Positif faible
0.0305
Positif faible
0.0233
Négatif faible
-0.0963
Answer 5-
Positif faible
0.0251
Positif faible
0.1311
Positif faible
0.0097
Positif faible
0.0793
Négatif faible
-0.0013
Négatif faible
-0.0223
Négatif faible
-0.1782
Answer 6-
Négatif faible
-0.0063
Positif faible
0.0106
Négatif faible
-0.0658
Négatif faible
-0.0081
Positif faible
0.0208
Positif faible
0.0844
Négatif faible
-0.0308
Answer 7-
Positif faible
0.0102
Positif faible
0.0417
Négatif faible
-0.0701
Négatif faible
-0.0279
Positif faible
0.0479
Positif faible
0.0660
Négatif faible
-0.0502
Answer 8-
Positif faible
0.0636
Positif faible
0.0810
Négatif faible
-0.0282
Positif faible
0.0139
Positif faible
0.0352
Positif faible
0.0140
Négatif faible
-0.1346
Answer 9-
Positif faible
0.0657
Positif faible
0.1683
Positif faible
0.0050
Positif faible
0.0671
Négatif faible
-0.0147
Négatif faible
-0.0505
Négatif faible
-0.1789
Answer 10-
Positif faible
0.0751
Positif faible
0.0714
Négatif faible
-0.0215
Positif faible
0.0267
Positif faible
0.0290
Négatif faible
-0.0113
Négatif faible
-0.1304
Answer 11-
Positif faible
0.0615
Positif faible
0.0584
Négatif faible
-0.0058
Positif faible
0.0074
Positif faible
0.0185
Positif faible
0.0234
Négatif faible
-0.1234
Answer 12-
Positif faible
0.0410
Positif faible
0.0994
Négatif faible
-0.0346
Positif faible
0.0348
Positif faible
0.0296
Positif faible
0.0233
Négatif faible
-0.1529
Answer 13-
Positif faible
0.0660
Positif faible
0.1017
Négatif faible
-0.0382
Positif faible
0.0281
Positif faible
0.0398
Positif faible
0.0139
Négatif faible
-0.1626
Answer 14-
Positif faible
0.0718
Positif faible
0.0982
Négatif faible
-0.0017
Négatif faible
-0.0070
Positif faible
0.0024
Positif faible
0.0108
Négatif faible
-0.1221
Answer 15-
Positif faible
0.0549
Positif faible
0.1333
Négatif faible
-0.0333
Positif faible
0.0169
Négatif faible
-0.0197
Positif faible
0.0204
Négatif faible
-0.1180
Answer 16-
Positif faible
0.0657
Positif faible
0.0273
Négatif faible
-0.0343
Négatif faible
-0.0433
Positif faible
0.0646
Positif faible
0.0246
Négatif faible
-0.0750


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This modest fear prevalence contrasts sharply with the historical positioning of HIV/AIDS as a primary existential threat during the 1980s-90s. As the article aptly notes, early HIV/AIDS campaigns relied heavily on fear-based messaging, leveraging protection-motivation theory to drive behavioral change through graphic depictions of mortality and disease. The current survey results suggest these diseases have been partially normalized in the public consciousness, supporting the article's observation that medical advancements have transformed HIV from a death sentence to a manageable chronic condition.


When examining broader fear contexts, it's noteworthy that personal concerns about "illness of relatives and children" (11%) and general "illness" (8%) outrank specific disease fears like HIV/AIDS or COVID-19. This pattern indicates that abstract illness threats generate more anxiety than particular diseases that have been subject to extensive public education campaigns. This finding aligns with the article's discussion of how healthcare messaging has evolved toward destigmatization and normalization, particularly for HIV/AIDS.


Spiral Dynamics Correlations: Understanding Value Systems and Fear Responses


The correlation data between disease fears and Spiral Dynamics stages provides fascinating insights into how different value systems engage with health threats. HIV/AIDS shows a positive correlation (0.0662) with Orange-level thinking, which represents achievement-oriented, strategic value systems. This alignment makes psychological sense, as Orange thinking prioritizes personal agency and risk management. Individuals operating from this value system may respond more actively to diseases perceived as consequences of personal behavior choices.


Conversely, HIV/AIDS fears correlate negatively with Yellow (-0.0516) and more strongly with Turquoise (-0.1776) value systems. These second-tier thinking systems in Spiral Dynamics represent more complex, integrative worldviews that may contextualize disease within a broader systemic understanding. The stronger negative correlation with Turquoise thinking is particularly notable, as this holistic perspective tends to integrate mortality and vulnerability into a comprehensive worldview, potentially reducing fear responses to specific conditions.


For COVID-19, the correlation pattern differs significantly. The positive correlation with Green thinking (0.0637) suggests that communitarian, egalitarian value systems may experience heightened concern about highly communicable diseases that threaten community well-being. This aligns with the article's discussion of how modern healthcare campaigns increasingly emphasize collective responsibility and community protection. The negative correlations with Blue (-0.0342), Orange (-0.0409), and Turquoise (-0.0748) value systems suggest varied psychological responses across the spiral.


Implications for Evolving Healthcare Messaging


The article chronicles a shift from fear-based campaigns toward empowerment and behavioral strategies, noting how psychological frameworks like self-efficacy theory and social norm theory have informed this evolution. The SDTEST® data supports the efficacy of this shift by demonstrating relatively low fear ratings for HIV/AIDS despite its historical stigma. This suggests that destigmatizing, empowering messaging approaches may have successfully normalized the condition in public consciousness.


The varying correlations between fears and Spiral Dynamics stages also validate the article's emphasis on intersectionality and tailored messaging. Different value systems appear to process disease threats through distinct psychological frameworks, which has significant implications for public health communication. The article notes that "campaigns are now much more carefully designed to address diverse populations," which aligns with the need to consider value system diversity in designing effective interventions.


Advancing Psychologically Informed Healthcare Communications


The relatively weak correlation between disease fears and specific Spiral Dynamics stages (with the critical value of the correlation coefficient for a normal distribution, by William Sealy Gosset (Student) r = 0.0323) suggests that fears of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 transcend value systems but manifest differently within them. This finding supports the article's conclusion that messaging must "remain effective, compassionate, and mindful of nuance." The positive correlation between HIV/AIDS fears and Orange thinking, contrasted with COVID-19's positive correlation with Green thinking, demonstrates how different diseases activate different value concerns.


The article's discussion of digital and social media platforms as vectors for modern healthcare messaging presents opportunities for even more targeted value-specific communications. Understanding the psychological frameworks through which different Spiral Dynamics stages process health information could enable micro-targeted campaigns that resonate more effectively with diverse audiences. For instance, messaging aimed at Orange-dominant thinkers might emphasize personal agency and achievement in health management, while Green-focused messaging might highlight community protection and collective responsibility.


Conclusion


The evolution of HIV/AIDS messaging described in the article reflects a sophisticated understanding of psychological principles, moving from protection-motivation theory toward self-efficacy and social norm approaches. The SDTEST® data validates this progression by showing relatively modest contemporary fear responses to HIV/AIDS despite its historical stigmatization. The correlation patterns between disease fears and Spiral Dynamics stages provide valuable insights for further refining healthcare communications to resonate with different value systems.


The comparative data between HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 fears, particularly their different correlation patterns with Spiral Dynamics stages, suggests that disease characteristics interact with value systems to produce distinct psychological responses. As the article argues, effective healthcare campaigns must continue to evolve based on evidence rather than prejudice. The SDTEST® data offers this evidence, demonstrating how fears of specific conditions correlate with different psychological frameworks and value systems.


This integration of fear psychology, mathematical correlation, and Spiral Dynamics theory provides a robust foundation for developing increasingly sophisticated, psychologically informed healthcare messaging strategies that can effectively engage diverse populations across the spiral of human development.



Sources

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-campbell-40202785/
[2] https://www.bps.org.uk/blog/towards-more-inclusive-and-empowering-healthcare-campaigns


2025.02.28
Valerii Kosenko
Product Owner SaaS SDTEST®

Valerii a obtenu son diplôme de pédagogue social-psychologue en 1993 et ​​a depuis appliqué ses connaissances à la gestion de projets.
Valerii a obtenu un master et le diplôme de chef de projet et de programme en 2013. Au cours de son programme de master, il s'est familiarisé avec Project Roadmap (GPM Deutsche Gesellschaft für Projektmanagement e. V.) et Spiral Dynamics.
Valerii est l'auteur de l'exploration de l'incertitude du V.U.C.A. concept utilisant la dynamique spirale et les statistiques mathématiques en psychologie, et 38 sondages internationaux.
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Bonjour à tous! Permettez-moi de vous demander, connaissez-vous déjà la dynamique en spirale?